AUD in red, waiting for tomorrow rate decision

The Australian Dollar is moving down against the main G10 currencies, while the market is waiting for the tomorrow RBA rate decision which is the main economic event for all the week.

The market seems having already priced the Bank’s non-move, keeping on hold the rate at the 2% level.

While the Australian economic conditions remain slightly positive, very interesting could be the RBA comments on the AUD level: the appreciation of the Australian currency (compared with the previous meeting) is not seen by the Bank as a positive factor and the Bank’s speakers could have something to say about it.

At the time of writing the AUD is trading at 0,7630 against the USD (with a negative performance of 0,63%) while looking at the Asian cpty is trading -0,90% against the JPY at 84,9495.

AUDUSD 4apr

The RBA could be disappointed from this levels (they are willing for a AUD/USD 0,60000), but this is not sufficient in order to change the interest rate, bringing down the AUD price.

Before this happens the Bank should be convinced that this price level could have an heavy negative influence on the national economy and on the health of the country (which is not the case now) and for that reason i think that the rate will be held on this level.

Technically speaking if we take a look to the AUD/JPY, this pair is trading negative for the second consecutive session, after the selling pressure during the Asian session, which are continuing at the beginning of the London one. The price action has been influenced by the retail sales data (o%) which have disappointed the investors, waiting for a small +0,4% performance.

Even worse the Japanese Yen is trading high even against the US Dollar after the decline of the Oil prices which has influenced the risk appetite of the market.

The immediate support which can be seen on the chart is 84,81 (100 DMA) after which the cross should go to 84,28 (24 March min.)

On the other hand, in case the cross should revert his movement, the first resistance is seen at 85,66.

AUDJPY 4apr

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