After having reset the Asian session’s spike the EUR/USD cross is extending his lateral move even during the European session, while investors are waiting for the pair to take a more firm direction following the US data expected for today.
At the time of writing the EUR/USD pair is trading down 0,02% at 1,1190. Yesterday’s spike during the night was followed by strong selling pressures, on the back of the USD bid tone against his major peers. In this context investors seems to prefer having USD in the pocket waiting for the GDP data and the Yellen’s speech in late NY session. Meanwhile the Dollar Index is trading at 95,20 making a slight positive performance of +0,05%.
The Fed president Yellen will be speaking in Harvard and despite his speech will be on the “transformational impact on society” and she is not supposed to speak about monetary policy, the market will remain careful about every word pronounced in that sense.
During the following hours, in absence of relevant Euro data, investors will look at the US Q1 GDP data, expected for 0,9% against previous 0,5%. Another important data will be the individual consumer expense. Considering the recent Fed’s hawkish rhetoric, an increasing GDP data would bring the market to think of a possible move by the Fed in June/July, even at the moment my expectation is for September.
Under a technical point of view, looking at the chart it’s easy to see the next resistance at 1,1200 broken which the pair could continue his movement until the 1,1250 level. On the flip side the first significant support is seen at 1,1100 (200-DMA).