The EUR/USD cross is moving higher from the opening of the European session, after the yesterday’s flat move, characterized by an initial drop recovered in the late session. The pair is trading at 1.1333 at the moment collecting a positive performance of 0,11% after having already touched the 1.1340 level.
The positive traction of the spot seems to be favored by the USD weakness, which remains cautious looking at the Friday Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Today’s session will be characterized by the disclosure of the European Manufacturing and Composite PMI’s data, the last expected down 0.3 points to 52.9 in August, after the slight increase to 53.2 in July. An explanation for that is the slowdown of the manufacturing activity in August (from 52.0 to 51.5) caused by the decline of the orders in July. Also the PMI for the service sector is declining. All of this elements bring me to consider a general decline in the composite PMI in line with the historical value for the July-August period and consistent with the 0.3 growth of the Q3 GDP QoQ.
Another important event for today’s session is the consumer confidence in August which i think will be slightly higher, from -7.9 to -7.7. In the beginning of august this value has been negatively influenced by the increase of the oil price and the post-Brexit implications, but the labour market conditions and the positive sentiment of the investors should prevail, positively influence the consumer confidence.
Looking at the chart you can see that the braking of the 18 August high at 1.1367 moved the next resistance level at 1.1434, broken which the price could move to 1.1466. On the opposite side, the fist significant support level is seen at 1.1263 (50% Fibo level between the May-June downside movement).