With next month’s data regarding UK public finances expected just the day before the Autumn Statement (23rd Nov), the September data are in fact the last reading of the deficit that analysts will have available before knowing expectations and revisions planned by the government for 2016-17.
In the event that the output data during the day today should confirm the trend in place since the beginning of the year, this would imply for the UK a debt of about £ 6bn. The Autumn Statement will be definitely able to explore different topics including the review of macroeconomic forecasts, the loosening of fiscal policies and changes in the privatization plans.
Meanwhile Cable seems to extend its decline for the third consecutive day, with bears who now see for the cross the target level of 1.22 on the back of weakness in oil prices and the general appreciation of the Greenback.
At the time of writing the GBP/USD is trading @ 1.2247 posting a 0.05% decline, with European markets which continue to favor risk-off profile among investors, thus giving impetus to the US Dollar.
Today’s focus will be on the UK public sector data and the Fed conferences in the late day.
Taking a look at the Cable chart, it can be identified the first support @ 1.2220, which corresponds to the 10-DMA, broken which it could lead to the 1.2173 level (18th of Oct low).