New Zealand Dollar – The imminent cut

It continues the walk of the New Zealand Dollar on the back of a positive macro-economic environment with an inflation which is still pretty low.

In the meantime the Q3 CPI was up just 0,2%, way less than expected from the RBNZ (2,0%) and this emphasizes the need of another OCR cut the next 10th of November to a possible record low of 1,75%. This scenario could scare the NZD buyers with the possibility of a cut in the next 2 weeks.


The NZD price however still remains higher that 2 weeks ago even if the drop of last week to 0.7265 is still alive.

The recover of the US Dollar extends also in Europe, with the markets still in risk-off mode, and at the time of writing the NZD/USD pair is traded @ 0.7164, exactly at the opening level after a drop which led the price to touch the low @ 0.7147. The cross seem not to be able to break the 0.7170 barrier, being under pressure by the drop of the Oil stock and price.


In the coming weeks, the strength of the Greenback will be a dominant factor on the market, with the rumors of a hike from the Fed on the December meeting still going on. The divergence between Fed and RBNZ seem to weigh on the Kiwi which has not benefitted from the huge gains against the OZ after the good CPI report.


The attention is now on the NZD trade balance data scheduled for tonight.

Looking at the chart, you can see the next resistance @ 0,7190, while on the negative side, a possible drop could led the cross to the first significant support at 0,7100.



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